The first semi-final didn’t go as planned. I took on the Czech Republic at 1.2x in the To Qualify market and they drifted out to 1.7, before settling at 1.4x. I have to put that down as a good value loser. Of my two other bets in the outright market I lost 101.0 shot Iceland, I’m still in shock bow at how they didn’t make it. I thought Greta was one of the best performances of the night, but in hindsight the lack of voting allies hurt them.
On a positive note, I still have Malta and they have been drawn in the second half for the final.
This appears to be the weaker semi-final, with the Ukrainian entry as the most interesting contender. I personally like the song, I think the juries will like it but I’m not convinced the public will get it. At this time I do think there’s an argument to be had about Russia and Ukraine splitting up the Eastern Bloc votes. With that in mind I’m adding Belgium to my outright winner book. At 126.0 (125/1) it isn’t expected to do well, however I expect it to qualify from the pimp slot and that could gain momentum.
Laura Tesoro, What’s The Pressure, reminds me a bit of 2010 German winner, Lena. She comes across well, the song is fun and uplifting, which may mean it gets knocked down by juries but I can see the public voting for it. With the new scoring rules, I can see a situation where it picks up plenty of 5 – 7 points, which may be enough to get it over the line.
In terms of a bet for tonight, again there’s nothing that I’m particularly sure on, so again I’ll be keeping stakes to a minimum. the only bet that interests me in a a semi-final that The UK can vote in is Ireland To Qualify. Nicky Byrne was member of Westlife, who were reletively well known in Western Europe. Much in the way that Blue overperformed in 2011, I can see this song outperforming its price just due to the singers existing fanbase.
Again, stakes are being kept small for this semi final and the outright bet.
- BACK BELGUIM TO WIN EUROVISION at 126.0 (888Sport)
- BACK IRELAND TO QUALIFY at 4.50 (Coral)