Royal Ascot – Day 4

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CUFF won a Listed race at Naas comfortably last month and look like she still has plenty of improvement in her. She’ll have no problem with the conditions, the only worry I have for her is that she is drawn away from the pace. Create A Dream is second in the market, and won a Conditions Stakes her on her racecourse debut in April. As with most Wesley Ward two-year olds, she’ll be very forward in her development and try to make all from the from. The race she won was over fiver furlongs and with this being six on testing ground I don’t want side with her.

BACK CUFF at 3.50 (Bet365)

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Beacon Rock is the favourite for this and although he has form in the sense that he was beaten into third by Hazand and Idaho three starts ago, he was a long way behind The Derby placed pair that day. He did get nearer to Idaho two starts ago in The Derrinstown but that form has taken a bit of a blow with the winner Moonlight Magic and second Shogun filling the last two places in The Derby.

I think the key form race for this race is The Lingfield Derby Trial. The race was won by Humphrey Bogart, who then ran in The Derby and finished fifth. He was held up that day and benefited from the horses at the front tiring after a strong pace was set. When he won at Lingfield he was already conceding race fitness to Carntop, who should now come on for that run and I expect to reverse the placings. The horse that finished third in that race was ACROSS THE STARS, he didn’t settle in that race and then when he went to make his challenge he was bumped and hemmed in by the winner. I can put a line through his run in The Derby as he had Keiron Fallon on board and didn’t handle the track. At the prices I think he’s the one to side with.

BACK ACROSS THE STARS at 13.00 (General)

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QUIET REFLECTION was brilliant when she landed the Group Two Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last month. She should have nothing to fear, the ground shouldn’t be a worry as she won on heavy at Chantilly on her seasonal re-appearance. Donjuan Triumphant may be able to get closer to her today, with the weights closer and the benefit of a run but I don’t think he’ll be able to get past her.

Log Out Island was visually impressive at Newbury on good ground when he made all last tie out. He’ll face different conditions today and it will be difficult for him to repeat that up in class and now that those tactics are apparent.

BACK QUIET REFLECTION at 3.00 (Bet365, William Hill, Coral)

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The ground has come right for Jet Setting and a big run from the  Irish 1000 Guineas winner is expected. I don’t think she was flattered by her win in Ireland, her and Minding pulled a long way clear of the third.  My doubts however go back to the English 1000 Guineas where she finished 9th, on better ground. Even though she gets her conditions today I think she is beatable.

The horse that I like her is NATHRA who’s second in the Poule D’Essai Des Pouliches is a good level of form. She had Qemah, Besharah and Alice Springs all in behind her that day. Add in her fifth placed finish in the 1000 Guineas, ahead of Jet Setting, as a strong case can be made for her to go very close today.

BACK NATHRA at 8.00 (Bet365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power)

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