Five bets at Goodwood so far, three winner and two thrid places has brought a profit of +3.63 points. A tough days racing, but one winner will guarentee that this will be another profitable festival.
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I think the price on MEHMAS here is ridiculously big here; yes he has to concede 3lbs to the field however he has the best level of form with second in The Coventry Stakes and beating Intelligence Cross by half-a-length in a Newmarket Group Two last time out. The time of that victory was impressive and the Hannon trained two year old was running on at the finish. I expect him to confirm form with Intelligence Cross here, despite the weight difference. Yalta who won at Goodwood yesterday, finished eighth in that race so it’s potential shaping into a yardstick.
The odds-on favourite is Blue Point, only twice raced he’s open to plenty of improvement. The form of his maiden is starting to work out well, with the third and fourth home both winning next time out, all be it as favourites in weak races. The reason he seems to be odds-on is due to his eleven length victory at Doncaster last time out. He was a 1.3x favourite that day, so was expected to win and win well. The clock backs up the visual impressions, but at odds-on he’s not one for me until he has proved himself in better company.
Mehmas has the best form in the race, should get a nice tow into things if he sits in behind Blue Point and has yet tot run a bad race in his career.
BACK MEHMAS AT 5.50 (Bet365, Bet Victor)
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BIG ORANGE has never been a horse that I’ve liked, yet he keeps putting in big performances. I was very impressed with him at Meydan when he was narrowly denied by the classy Vazirabad and if he runs to that level of form again I expect him to win this comfortably. He was given an easy lead last time out, but still stayed on strongly and beat The Grey Gatsby by two-and-a-half lengths. He won this race last year, look to have improved this season and I’m struggling to find something to oppose him with.
BACK BIG ORANGE AT 5.00 (Bet365, Coral, Bet Victor)
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An one-mile six-furlong fillies Group Three, isn’t really something that will set the pulses racing but I want to opposes the favourite Pamona. She’s now officially the top rated horse in the race on the back of a Listed success at York. The win came on the back of two disappointing runs and a stable move. She won in good style at York, but I want to see more from her before I back her at the price she is today. On her last visit to this track, in April, she finished last of thirteen behind Yarrow, Twitch and California. The form of that race has a decent look to it, with the runner-up having won since and the fifth home winning a handicap here yesterday. If Pamona’s York win is being over-rated and she’s not back to here best, because of a stable move then I fully expect her to be beaten today.
The horse that interests me the most is MILL SPRINGS, she signed off last season with an impressive Listed success at Ascot. Her return to action this year came at Haydock over twelve furlongs, but the main reason I fancy her today is that she looked a much improved horse when stepped up to today’s distance at Royal Ascot. She finished third behind Jennies Jewel and Qewy, but there is not shame in being beaten by that pair. Dettori chooses to ride her again in this and I think it’s safe to assume he would have had the choice between her and California. If he believes that Mill Springs is the more likely winner, then that has to cast some doubt over the form of the previous race at Goodwood, which ties five of here six rivals together.
BACK MILL SPRINGS AT 5.50 (general)