It’s been a fantastic festival so far, with a profit already guaranteed after five winners from eight bets returning a profit of +11.125 points.
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”14:00 – Glorious Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
I always believe it’s worth looking out for course form around Goodwood, it’s not the be all and end all but it’s a quirky track and some horses just don’t take to it. That takes me nicely on to MOUNT LOGAN, he’s three from three at the track and this looks like a great opportunity to make it four. Last time out he finished fourth in The Hardwicke Stakes (Group Two) at Royal Ascot, but that was a competitive race, which was won by previous Group Two winner Dartmouth, with multiple Group One winner Highland Reel in second, a Group Two winner in fifth a Group One and Classic winner in sixth and another Group Two winner in eighth. This is a step back down in class from that race and back at his favourite track I expect to see him go very close.
BACK MOUNT LOGAN AT 4.33 (Bet365)
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”14:35 – Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
At the start of the week I thought that this race would bring my NAP of the meeting, I’m still very confident but the crown of ‘best bet’ may have to go to Mehmas yesterday, or Global Applause, who didn’t win but 4.33 into a BSP of 2.91 is the kind of bets I like. Anyway EMOTIONLESS looked a superstar in the making last season. He won his maiden by 3 ½ lengths and the form of that’s worked out pretty well with a number of winners. That was followed by a demolition job of a Group two field at Doncaster, again by 3 ½ lengths, however he finished the season by getting injured in the Dewhurst Stakes and basically being pulled up. A 248 day break saw he re-appear in The St. James Palaces stakes at Royal Ascot, a very strong Group One that contained all three Guineas winners and the first two home here in The Sussex Stakes. The stable vibes still seem to be strong for him and this is a significant drop back in class, if he has retained the ability he showed as a two-year-old then I think he’s a Group One horse in a Group Three.
The other two horses to concentrate on are Thikriyaat and Forge, they fined second and third behind Ribchester, who finished like a train to take third in the Group One Sussex Stakes on Wednesday, in the Group Three Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. However they were both beaten over two lengths and on a line Ibn Malik an on form Emotionless should have the beating of them.
This was the first horse on my list for the entire week, I have no reason to not think he’s still capable and I believe that he should be favourite for this.
BACK EMOTIONLESS AT 4.33 (Bet365, Coral, Bet Victor)
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”15:45 – King George Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
A very good renewal of the King George Stakes, sees last years Kings Stand and Abbaye winner, Goldream, line up against Muthmir, who won this race last year, the runner up of that race and 2014 winner Take Cover. Throw in Ajaya, who beat Ribchester in a Group Two last year and we already have a cracking race in prospect. However I think the two three-year-old fillies are the ones to concentrate on. Marsha and EASTON ANGEL receive weight from the entire field and both showed their class when fighting out the finish at York last time out, with Muthmir third.
The formbook shows that Marsha beat Easton Angel by a neck, but that doesn’t tell the story of the whole race. Paul Mulrennan cruised through the race, motionless, on Easton Angel and she looked the winner, especially when trading at 1.11 in-running. However a canny ride by Luke Morris, combined with Mulrennan delaying pushing the button allowed Marsha to get up a head of steam and win the race. I think that the combination of that experience and the fast downhill track will play to the strengths of Easton Angel more than they will to Marsha’s hold up tactics. With the selection also having a good draw in four I’m expecting that form to be reversed.
BACK EASTON ANGEL AT 8.00 (Bet365, William Hill, Bet Victor, Betfred)
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”16:55 – Queens Plate Stakes” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
Always Smile is a horse that completely frustrates me, I backed her heavily at Royal Ascot in 2015 and she decided to drift across the track before getting beaten by a nose. After that she had 330 days off, before winning a Listed Handicap at York with a horse I don’t rate, Convey, in second. Her next port of call was Group Two at Royal Ascot, she ran a creditable third. The runner up that day has since finished second in a group Two, however the winner who looked a very smart filly was stuffed at Newmarket in a Group One, although she did drift from heavy odds-on to 2.10 so maybe something was amiss. Always Smile finished third in that Newmarket race, staying on strongly towards the end. I don’t think the drop back in trip will be beneficial and although it’s a step down in class I just can’t bring myself to back her today, I have too many question marks over her to be playing at the price.
I think it’s worth giving BESHARAH another chance, I backed her at York last time out where she finished second after trading 1.25 in-running but the comments I made before that race still hold true here. I think her form has been enhanced by that run at York, with the fifth coming out to win and the fourth being beaten a head by The Tin Man at Newbury since. I think the step up to seven furlong will help her and I think she should be shorter in the betting.
BACK BESHARAH AT 6.00 (Bet365, William Hill, Bet Victor)