I’ve been waiting for this game impatiently for a few weeks now as I pits a team that I believe will outperform expectations against one that will have a similar season to the last two. I feel that Bournemouth will be a top ten side this season, they played some excellent football last year, creating numerous chances per match. With Callum Wilson back and the addition of Jordan Ibe I can see them being a handful for any side this year. However the main reason I believe they’ll improve is down to the belief that they won’t be conceding a goal from 43.51% of the shots on target they face. That number is too high to be sustainable and I expect them to concede a lot less goals this season, partly due to having more experience and their midfield/attack being able to press more.
When Van Gaal was appointed at Manchester United it was being hailed as a new beginning, he was going to deliver instant success etc etc… In my opinion the biggest mistake he made was keeping Ryan Giggs as his assistant manager. Jose Mourinho has seen that and he’ll now be free to manage the side without that disruptive force in the camp. However I don’t think it will make that much difference, Manchester United may get to the 70 point mark, but I don’t really see them getting beyond that. The style of play from the ‘cautious’ football under Van Gaal won’t change, so I don’t expect to see Manchester United beating teams 3-0/4-0, which the fans believe is the Man Utd way even though it wasn’t like that under Ferguson.
There’s a number of ways that you could play this game, backing Bournemouth +0.5, laying Man Utd, backing Bournemouth +1 are all good bets according to my numbers. However the one that jumps off the page to me is Bournemouth 0 Asian Handicap. Not only do I believe that it’s the biggest value, but I’d much rather take that be in the belief that Bournemouth are capable of winning, than going along the lines of thinking they’re only good enough for a draw.
My goal expectancies have this as Bournemouth 1.16 v 1.26 Manchester United, so I am expecting a close game, with the most likely score being 1-1, an outcome I’ve priced at 7.71. We may see a new look Manchester United that attempt more shots, I expect that over the season, therefore they’ll score more goals, however at the odds and with my belief that Bournemouth will improve defensively I have to oppose them here.
BACK BOURNEMOUTH 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 3.65 (888 Sport)