Last season Cardiff were one of the strongest home sides in the league, winning twelve and only losing twice. On average they outshot their opponents by 4.22 shots per game at The Cardiff City Stadium. QPR by contrast only managed four road wins all season, whilst losing ten. They were also outshot by an average of 2.09 shots per game.
My numbers have this as Cardiff 1.45 v 0.92 QPR, so I see the home win as the most likely outcome, a scenario which I’ve priced up at 2.03. In the correct score market I have made 1-0 my favourite at 7.40, whilst the most likely away win is 0-1 at 11.72. I have 0-0 (10.79) and 1-1 (8.04) as more likely outcomes than QPR winning 1-0.
It’s rare that I go for a split line Asian Handicap bet, but my numbers have highlighted the 2.03 available on Cardiff -0.25 (0, -0.25) as offering the most value. What this bet means is that if Cardiff draw you only lose half your stake, whilst a win means you get paid out in full. I don’t get why QPR are being supported in this matchup, a 3-0 victory over Leeds is a very different prospect from going to Cardiff and winning.
BACK CARDIFF -0.25 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.03 (Bet Victor)