This is the most puzzling game of the weekend in my opinion; my original numbers had West Ham as favourites and huge value. However that was down to Chelsea being so poor at home last season, I’ve tweaked my numbers for this game as I don’t believe Chelsea can be that bad at home again. They finished 13th in the home form table last season and if we just take the post-Mourinho era into account they were the 14th best home side.
After making some changes to try and get a more accurate reflection of what I believe Chelsea’s current abilities are I got the goal expectancies of Chelsea 1.57 v 1.34 West Ham. Those numbers give me the below odds to work with.
There are two bets I like here and they both have their benefits, depending on what level’s of risk you’re happy to take. Firstly West Ham +1 Asian Handicap means that you have the added security of The Hammers being able to lose by a single goal, which would return your stake. I don’t see Chelsea running riot and I don’t think that Conte is the kind of manager that will be setting his side up to win 3-0. I like to push lines, so I’ll be taking the 0 line on West Ham in this match. I believe they are capable of winning; they’ve kept their side together from last season and I had that side down as the sixth best team in the league based on shot data. Therefore the belief that they are suddenly going to implode a finish the season in 16th place is unfounded, in my opinion.
BACK WEST HAM 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 4.80 (888 Sport)