League One | 13th August 2016

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Chesterfield v Swindon” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I was told by a Swindon fan that they’re worried about the coming season, they then beat a team I rate highly in Coventry and followed it up by losing at QPR on penalties in the cup. I don’t believe that Swindon are about to challenge for promotion, but I also don’t see Chesterfield finishing outside the bottom eight. I’ve priced this game up based on the goal expectancies of Chesterfield 1.37 v 1.34 Swindon and that has given me the below odds.


All the value is on the Swindon side of the market, with the best Asian Handicap bet being the 0 line. This would me that a draw would return stakes. Based on last season data I have Chesterfields shot profile averaging -2.85 per game. They were massively outshot in both games so far this season, 32 against and 15 for, although both matches were away from home. The should put up a better showing today, however on my numbers they shouldn’t be as short as they are and therefore have to be taken on.


[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Oldham v Walsall” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I have Walsall down as one of the best sides in the league, they like to play the ball around, but they have a cutting edge that allows them to create a large number of chances, whilst giving up very few. Although I backed Oldham last week, that wasn’t because I thought they were any good, it was based on my belief that Millwall aren’t a good shooting side. Oldham will find this a lot harder than they did last week, even with home advantage. My numbers have given me expectancies of Oldham 1.06 v 1.71 Walsall.


I believe that Walsall should be odds-on to win this match, however the best bet is to take the on the 0 Asian Handicap line. I have this down as the best value bet in the match and it really is difficult to see Oldham keeping Walsall out, or even if they let one in I don’t see Oldham scoring two goals. This bet is my NAP of the weekend.


[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Port Vale v Southend” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Southend are the worst team in the league based on the available shot data that I have, last season they were out shot by an average of 3.43 shots per game. A huge amount of credit has to be given to Daniel Bentley for his performances last season, he’s now gone to Brentford and I think we’ll see Southend really struggle this season.

Port Vale aren’t a very good side either, but on my shot data they’re better than Southend. An opening day draw away to Bradford is an excellent result on the face of it, although I still expect them to be fighting relegation all season. I have this match as Port Vale 1.57 v Southend 1.08.


The reason that Port Vale are the value here and the reason why I’m siding with them on a higher line is due to Southend’s awful shot profile. The more shots you concede the more goals you’ll concede, and if you’re also attempting fewer shots it’s harder to score goals. By backing Port Vale at -1 Asian Handicap, we need them to win by two clear goals for a profit, however if they win by a single goal stakes are returned.

BACK PORT VALE -1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 3.65 (888 Sport)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Sheffield United v Rochdale” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I have Rochdale down as one of the league’s better sides, whilst Sheffield United are again being overrated. On shot data, Rochdale are better than Sheffield United, if league tables are your thing then Rochdale are a better side than Sheffield United. The only way Sheffield United were better than Rochdale last season was on attendances. Yet Sheffield United are priced up at odds-on to win this match. I have the goal expectancies for this as Sheff Utd 1.45 v 1.15 Rochdale. That means I believe Sheffield United should be favourites, but they should be priced up at 2.28.


Based on my goal expectancies, I got the above numbers of which Rochdale on the 0 Asian Handicap line stands out as the best bet. I would rate these teams of similar ability and therefore I don’t think it would be a surprise if Rochdale won, however they are very capable of at least getting a draw.


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