Last season Millwall averaged 9.80 shots for per game, whilst conceding 8.93 against. They somehow managed to score 73 goals and are widely tipped to go close to promotion again this season. Oldham on the other hand are among many peoples fancies to be relegated, they are most seasons, however this will be their twentieth consecutive season at this level. A look at their shot stats from last season shows that they conceded 9.85 shots per game and managed 9.39 shots themselves. Their problem last year was scoring goals, 22nd in the league on that stat, and they haven’t done well to address those issues after losing their manager and almost their entire squad. However last season they had the second best away defensive record in the entire league, which saw them only lose five times on the road all season.
From a Goal Expectancy point of view I have this as Millwall 1.34 v 0.89 Oldham. Millwall should be favourites, but should they really be 1.67 to win a game at home in this league? I don’t think so, as them odds suggest Millwall are almost a full goal better than Oldham. As I said earlier Millwall don’t shoot a lot and with the new players at Oldham I can see this being a struggle for them. For me to lose my suggested bet Millwall would need to win by two clear goals. I see the most likely score being a 1-0 home victory (14.28% chance), followed by 1-1 (12.83%) and 0-0 (10.65%).
BACK OLDHAM +1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.78 (Bet Victor)