Premier League | 13th August 2016

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Everton v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
I have Spurs down as the best team in league, based on last seasons shot statistics. I therefore think they are in a good position to challenge for the title this time around. They’ll need to pick up extra 5-6 points, but the addition of Vincent Janssen to take some of the load off Harry Kane, or potentially playing the pair with Wanyama as the holding midfielder, should enable them to improve their shot on target to goal ratio from 27.60%. The only sides which posted a lower return than that last season were Crystal Palace and Aston Villa.

Despite Everton being ‘poor’ defensively last season they only conceded from 29.73% of the shots on target they faced, which is lower than the league average. There isn’t much room for improvement on that front. Where they may be able to improve this season, is from the number of shots on target they face per game, last season they conceded a total of 185 shots on target, with only Sunderland and Aston Villa posting a worse figure. Logic dictates that the more shots on target you face the more goals you will concede, Tottenham had 250 SOTs last season which was 40 more than anyone else, yet they underachieved in front of goal, if they progress to the mean they’ll pick up more points, in theory.EvevSpuThe above numbers are based on the goal expectancies of Everton 1.16 v 1.80 Tottenham. Those numbers mean that I believe Tottenham are more likely to win than not, therefore I have them priced up at 1.91 (10/11). However in this instance I believe the best way to play the Asian Handicap market is to ‘push the line’. In taking -0.5 at 2.40 you’d get paid out in full if Spurs win. However I believe the better value, and a key part of long term profits is to take the bets you believe have the highest percentage of ‘value’. In this case I believe taking Tottenham -1 is the best bet, at 3.90. If they win by a single goal then you have your stake returned. However if they win by more than a single goal, you’re paid out at a bigger price. I believe that Tottenham have a near 29% chance of winning by two goals or more. Once you add in the security of a single goal win, returning your stake, I believe that the -1 line odds should be set at 2.65.


[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester City v Sunderland” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I expect Manchester City to win this match and I’m sure many people will be shouting about how backing them at 1.2x is ‘free money’. However that price isn’t for me, I actually have Man City priced up at around the 1.4x mark. The main question to ask yourself when looking to bet in games like this is how many goals do you think X team will win by? My goal expectancies have this at Man City 2.27 v 0.85 Sunderland. Therefore I think the home side are going to win this by 1.42 goals. I have the 2-0 score line as the most likely outcome and have priced it up at 8.82.ManCvSunEven though I think Man City will win this game and the most likely score is 2-0 I believe the best Asian Handicap bet is Sunderland +2 at 1.74. This means Manchester City need to win by three clear goals for the bet to be a loser, if they win by two goals then stakes are returned. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sunderland score, and outcome I’ve given a 58% chance to. If Sunderland do score it would mean that Man City need four goals for this bet to lose and with a midweek Champions League qualifier I don’t think they’ll be exerting themselves too much if 3-1 up with ten minutes to go.


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