Premier League | 20th August 2016

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Stoke v Manchester City” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I always look to take on the ‘big’ clubs, especially when they are away from home and even though I don’t rate Stoke the at the prices I want to side with them here. Since I put my numbers together yesterday there’s been a drift on the home side, so much so that it has changed the line I’m going to be betting at.

I make Manchester City favourites for this, but I think they should be 2.14 and not the 1.73 (in one place) which is currently available. The 2.14 is based on goal expectancies of Stoke 1.06 v 1.47 Manchester City.

STOvMANC

Originally I was going to side with Stoke on the +0.75 line, however the drift has now made +1 the optimum bet. Although I think Stoke overachieved defensively last season, they managed that without Ryan Shawcross. With him back in the side I’m sure they’ll be able to frustrate teams again. As we saw with Sunderland last weekend it is possible to stop Manchester City scoring a bucket full of goals, if you’re organised. We also saw that they’ll give you a chance, especially with the ‘ball-playing not defending’ centre back that is John Stones.

In a similar fashion to last weekend, if Manchester City concede I don’t expect them to fully cover the handicap and as I’ve given Stoke a near 66% chance of scoring I’m happy to side with them.

BACK STOKE +1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.88 (Bet365)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Watford v Chelsea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I think that Watford will get a lot of draws this seasons, and with the way Conte sets Chelsea up I can see them failing to win plenty of games on the road. I was impressed with Chelsea on Monday night, but even though Costa scored they still looked like they were lacking a cutting edge. They were also helped by West Ham being generally awful.

WatvChe

I have the goal expectancies for this as Watford 1.27 v 1.38 Chelsea, therefore I see a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome. However Chelsea are priced up like they are Manchester City, and seeing as I’m opposing them at the odds, I have to be against Chelsea here.

I believe that 0 Asian Handicap/Draw No Bet is the best way to play this match. Chelsea draw this match 0-0 last year, and that scoreline wouldn’t be a shock. They also lost at Stoke, Swansea and Everton who I rate at a similar level to Watford.

BACK WATFORD 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 4.17 (Ladbrokes)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Leicester v Arsenal” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

After all I’ve said about Leicester in the post-season and last weekend, I find myself backing them here. For me betting is all about the price and the long term. My numbers have this as Leicester 1.52 v 1.25 Arsenal. I think a lot is being made over Leicester losing last weekend, but I don’t think they’re that bad a side and I have them finishing eight, so not far of the fourth position I have Arsenal finishing in. I wouldn’t make Arsenal favourites to win at a traditional eight placed club, like Liverpool or Everton, therefore I don’t see why they should be favourites here.

LeicvArs

I think Leicester are capable of winning this game, which therefore means the 0 Asian Handicap is very attractive to me.

BACK LEICESTER 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.15 (Bet Victor)

Cherry Analysts

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