[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Blackburn v Fulham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
So Fulham are favourites away from home, which is strange as they’ve only won 25 of their 134 league away games this decade. Answers on a postcard for the last time they were favourites on the road.
My shot data, based on last season, had Blackburn as the 8th best side in the league whilst Fulham were down in 18th, therefore Blackburn underperformed by seven positions last term. That may be the start of a worrying trend as they look poor this season, they’ve only managed to have 35 shots so far which is the second worst total in the league and that problem is compounded by the fact they’ve conceded 59 shots.
Given what I’ve written above it will seem strange that I’m going to suggest a back of Blackburn, but betting is all about long term value and perceived prices, with the belief that those factors deliver profits. I don’t see who Fulham can be priced up at 2.50 to win this match, that’s saying they would win 40% of the time. On the evidence that we have I just don’t think Fulham are that good, especially as they’ve only won 18% of their away matches since 2010.
I admit that my goal expectancies of Blackburn 1.51 v 1.02 Fulham may be slightly over-rating the hosts, but at this early stage of the season I am prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt, especially as I can get some draw cover at odds-against.
BACK BLACKBURN 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.25 (888 Sport)
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Cardiff v Reading” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
It’s apparently been a poor start to the season for Cardiff City, however their were signs of life when they managed to get on the scoresheet for the first time this season without the aid of own goals in a 2-2 draw at Fulham. Despite any issues Cardiff have had they still sit above Reading in the league table. My data rates Reading highly, last season they finished second in my table, yet they ended up in 17th place.
Jaap Stam is trying to build a possession based game, but they still have the problem of not having a consistent goal-scorer, therefore I see a reason for them to be this price, 3.20, away from home. My goal expectancies have this as Cardiff 1.50 v 1.02 Reading, therefore I believe the hosts should be nearer to the 2.00 mark than the 2.50 available.
With Cardiff looking an inflated price in the win market, it means that it’s possible to get them onside and get have your stake returned if it’s a draw, at a value price. I think that Cardiff 0 Asian Handicap/Draw No Bet should be 1.53 and for a side that only lost twice at home last season I don’t think that’s far off being accurate. Reading will improve over the course of the season, but they are overrated today and I’m taking them on.
BACK CARDIFF 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.77 (Bet Victor)
[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Brentford v Sheffield Wednesday” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]
It’s been a strange start to the season for Wednesday, games against Norwich and Aston Villa saw them pick up four points without conceding a goal, yet their last two fixtures have seen them lose 3-1 at Burton Albion and 2-0 at home to Leeds. They travel to a Brentford side whom I believe are generally underrated, especially at home. So far this season they’ve taken six points at Griffin Park, but lost both away games, one against lead leaders Huddersfield and the other at Rotherham. I wouldn’t let last weeks defeat to the Millers put me off though, Brentford were the dominant side throughout, with 18 shots to 6, but just had an off day in front of goal.
Brentford should be favourites in my book and I’m fully expecting them to score at least once today, which means that Sheffield Wednesday would need two goals for mt bet to lose. My goal expectancies of Brentford 1.39 v 1.11 Sheff Wed, have highlighted the 0 Asian Handicap line on the hosts as the optimum be to have.
BACK BRENTFORD 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.03 (Bet Victor)