Chelsea v Liverpool

There are some very interesting numbers for this match which over the period of time will ‘regress to the mean’.

So far this season Chelsea have conceded from 57.14% of Shots on Target faced whilst Liverpool have conceded from 50% of SOTs faced. Both of these numbers will come down over the course of the season.

At the moment these are two of the best offensive sides in the league, Chelsea have taken more shots than any side, with 79 of which 27 were on target (only better by Everton with 31). Liverpool aren’t far behind with their 72 shots taken and 26 on target.

I’ve already marked Chelsea at home ‘up’ once already this season and I’m not prepared to adjust them further at this stage. They’ve had a good set of fixtures so far, which may be the reason hey have impressive shot stats. Liverpool on the other had have had three away matches and faced last seasons champions. To contrast that Liverpool were able to rack up a large number of shots against Burnley, due to the way the game panned out. Therefore I haven’t marked them up on how they finished last season.

I have the goal expectancies for this game as Chelsea 1.47 v 1.40 Liverpool, which has given me the below odds.

chelivI believe Chelsea should be favourites, but I feel home advantage is being over-hyped in this matchup. I don’t see Chelsea as a better side than Tottenham and my odds are more in line with how the bookmakers would price up a Tottenham v Liverpool match. From a betting point of view, I expect Liverpool to score and have given them a 41% chance of scoring two or more goals. If they manage to score two or even three goals then, obviously, it will be difficult for them to lose the match. Therefore I’m happy to back them on the 0 Asian Handicap line, which means stakes are returned in the event of a draw. I feel this is an easier game, long term, than Tottenham or Arsenal away and they came away with points from both of those.

BACK LIVERPOOL 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.40 (Bet Victor, 888 Sport)

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