Chelsea v Manchester United

Chelsea are good! They are consistently creating good goalscoring opportunities, whilst giving up very few chances at the other end. When looking at this match they beat Manchester United on every stat;

  • Total Shots For: 138 v 128
  • SOTs For: 48 v 43
  • Total Shots Against: 65 v 84
  • SOTs Against: 20 v 29

Chelsea are also consistent with league averages when it comes to the percentage of shots that end up as goals, so there’s no suggestion they are overachieving going forward. However there is room for improvement defensively as 45% of the shots on target they’ve faced have found the back of the net, that number is too high and will regress over time.

With Manchester United there isn’t much room for improvement, they’re scoring from 30.23% of their SOTs and conceding from 27.59% of SOTs faced. Those numbers are sustainable, so the only way Manchester United can improve long term is to either create more shots or concede less shots.

Taking the above into account, along with some other factors I got the goal expectancies of;

Chelsea 1.79 v 0.93 Manchester United 

Those numbers in turn have provided me with the below odds.


The numbers that stand out the most for me her are Chelsea -1, in the Asian Handicap market. This means that Chelsea need to win by two clear goals, however stakes are returned if they only win by one. I think that there’s been a slight over reaction to Manchester United’s/Mourinho’s bus parking tactics, if Chelsea get the first goal then what do the away side do? They’ll have to become more open, which will create more chances. The same is true the other way around.

BACK CHELSEA -1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 3.45 (888 Sport)

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