Premier League | 14th January 2017

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Swansea v Arsenal” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

There are two bits of key data to look at in this match for me. The first one is that Arsenal has scored from 43.56% of their shots on target this season. That is important because it’s unsustainable, only once this century has a Premier League side managed to finish a season with a SOT:Goal For ratio of greater than 40%. That was Manchester City in 2013/14, with 42.86%, when then scored 102 goals in the season. Arsenal’sĀ  current numbers have them scoring around 84 goals this season, which would be massively up on last terms 65. I have my doubts as to whether Arsenal have actually improved by around 30% in terms of goals scored and their ability to be the most efficient shooting team this century. Therefore I can see their goal scoring exploits cooling over the coming months and them finishing with a Goal For Total of around 74.

The second key stat fro this game is that Swansea are conceding from 44.12% of the shots on target they have faced this season. Similarly to the above Arsenal numbers, that would be the highest SOT:Goal Against ratio this century. Even if Swansea are, on the face of it, one of the worst defensive teams in the history of the league, I can only see that number coming down.

What does this mean from a betting point of view?

My numbers have the expected goal difference between the two sides as 0.51 in favour of Arsenal. I therefore have the most likely correct scores (my modelled odds on brackets) as 1-1 (8.67), 0-1 (9.92), 1-2 (10.49), 0-2 (12.00).

Despite my model making Arsenal favourites, I believe the value bet in this match is to side with Swansea on a +1 Asian Handicap line. This means the bet will win if Swansea win or draw, but full stakes will be returned in the event of a single goal winning margin for Arsenal.

BACK SWANSEA +1 Asian HandicapĀ at 2.11 (Bet Victor)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Leicester v Chelsea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

In my post prior to Tottenham v Chelsea I mentioned that Chelsea were posting generally unsustainable shot to goal (14.29%) and shot on target to goal (39.25%) numbers, therefore I expected them to start scoring less goals. I also wrote about expected winning and losing runs, with the point being that a three game losing run for Chelsea this season shouldn’t be seen as a shock. The same points I made then still hold true this weekend and I’m looking to oppose Chelsea again.

For all of Leicester’s ‘troubles’ this season, they’ve only been beaten twice at home from ten games, winning five. Last season was a statistical anomaly and they’ve now regressed back to their ‘true’ place in the league, which is 11th to 15th if we’re being honest.

There’s a number of factors that make me believe siding with Leicester on a +1 Asian handicap is the best bet for this match. The first of those reasons is that my model highlights it as value. The second of those is that I see this as a low scoring game, six of Chelsea’s ten away games this season have had under 2.5 goals. the third reason is that Chelsea would happily settle for a 1-0 victory, in the games against Sunderland and Crystal Palace, for an example, they weren’t pushing on and looking to get the second goal once they took the lead.

BACK LEICESTER +1 Asian Handicap at 1.79 (Bet Victor, 888 Sport)

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