Premier League | 21st January 2017

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Swansea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I was a Swansea backer last weekend on the basis that over the course of the season they wouldn’t concede from over 44% of the shots on target they faced, whilst Arsenal wouldn’t continue to score from over 43% of their shots on target. Arsenal had six shots, of which four (66%) went in and just to rub it in some more, two of the goals were own goals.

Moving forward to this weekend and Swansea has again been highlighted as a value bet. That may seem strange when the worst defence on the league travel to the best attack. However I’m still firmly of the belief that Swansea won’t finish the season having concede from over 45% of the shots on target they’ve faced. Another reason to be positive regarding Swansea is that they’ve now conceded nine own goals this season, surely that run of deflections can’t go on much longer.

Two goals are huge in football and even if Liverpool win by two goals, stakes will be returned.

BACK SWANSEA +2 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.89 (888 Sport)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Stoke v Man Utd” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

BACK STOKE 4.75 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 4.75 (888 Sport)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Bournemouth v Watford” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Watford have been on a poor run of form, five away defeats in the bounce and only one win in their last nine games has dragged them down the table. However in truth there isn’t much difference between them and Bournemouth as the below shot stats tables show.

I believe bettors get too caught up in winning and losing runs, without stopping to think if they’re still getting value on their bet. Individual runs of 5, 10 or even 15 games are such a small data sample, yet people put a huge weighting towards them. If we look at larger data sizes of say 76 games, we’ll generally see teams achieve the points that they were expected to.

Looking at shot statistics also gives us a larger data set to look at, compared to goals or individual results, therefore it is a more useful and meaningful when attempting to predict the future.

BACK WATFORD 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 3.55 (888 Sport)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Man City v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

BACK TOTTENHAM 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.66 (Bet Victor)

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