Premier League | 31st January 2017

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Arsenal v Watford” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Arsenal are playing some great football at the moment, however I bet numbers and not teams. My numbers tell me that their current rate of goal scoring is unsustainable. At the moment they are scoring from 43.48% of their shots on target, if they keep it up then that would be the highest SOT:Goal ratio in the history of the Premier League.


If, as I expect, their scoring numbers drop off it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll stop winning games, it just means they may win them by a single goal instead of by three or four. This is where the Asian Handicap market is perfect as it means in matches like this we can back Watford with and still make/not lose money even in the event of an Arsenal victory.

BACK WATFORD +2 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.85 (Bet Victor)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Swansea v Southampton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

I’ve had Swansea down as a ‘value’ side for a number of weeks now, due to their shots on target to goals against percentage being too high compared to league averages and historical highs. However today they come up against a Southampton side who are again posting fantastic shot data [see below] but aren’t getting the rewards they deserve.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At the moment The Saints are scoring from only 20.75% of their shots on target, I don’t believe they can go through the season with their conversation rate that low nor do I see it getting lower. Therefore over the coming weeks I envisage them handing out a few thrashings, similar to what they did to Leicester in the last round of fixtures.


BACK SOUTHAMPTON TO WIN at 2.38 (Bet Victor)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Sunderland v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

BACK SUNDERLAND +1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.65 (888 Sport)

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