Chelsea are on a remarkable run and I’m not sure many would have backed them to win 13 straight games after the 3-0 loss at Arsenal. If we assumed that Chelsea were 2.00 (evens) to win each match, then over a 38 game season, we would expect winning runs of 5 games. Considering their average odds during this run have been 1.75 (3/4), that gives them an average chance of 57.11% in each game, we can run the calculation (Log38)/-Log(0.5711) which tells us we should expect them to win 6.49 (6 or 7) games in a row over the course of a 38 game season. They’ve already outperformed this and we can be sure that they will not win every game between now an the end of the season. Conversely we can also expect them to have losing runs of 3 games over the course of the season.
For all Chelsea’s dominance they currently sit 5th in the shot difference table, 44 shots behind Tottenham. Basic logic suggests that the more you shoot the more you will score and the fewer shots you concede against you, the fewer you will concede.
|Shots F||Shots A||Total Diff|
If we then look at Shot on Target numbers we again see that Tottenham are ahead of Chelsea.
|SOT F||SOT A||SOT Diff|
If we dig a little further into these numbers and look at the percentage of shots/shots on target to goals, we see that Chelsea are scoring with 14.29% of their shots and 39.25% of their shots on target, these numbers are generally unsustainable in the long term and I expect them to regress to nearer 10% and 32%.
Looking at the same numbers for Tottenham we see that they are scoring from 10.45% of their shots and 30.33% of their shots on target, in the long term they should be able to keep up with their current goal scoring levels.
From a defensive point of view what’s interesting is that both these sides are in the top three when it comes to not conceding from shots. Tottenham are only conceding from 7.91% of shots against, whilst Chelsea are conceding from 8.07% of the shots they face. In theory both of these numbers are unsustainable when compared to league average, but as both these sides sit at the same level they cancel each other out when it comes to defensive ‘luck’.
Using the data that we have available I have the below numbers for this match, which shows me that the value is on the Tottenham side of the market.
Back Tottenham 0 Asian Handicap at 2.00 (Bet365)