Premier League | 11th February 2017

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester United v Watford” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Manchester United have been ‘unlucky’ in front of goal this season, they’ve only scored from 24.66% of their Shots On Target. I therefore expect to see them regress to the mean over the remainder of the season, however my numbers don’t take that 24.66% into account and instead I’ve given them, like all other sides, an average SOT:Goal percentage. This therefore has already marked their expected goals value up from the 1.84, it would be if based on this seasons finishing statistics, to 2.06. For Manchester United to finish the season with an average SOT:Goal % they will need to score from 42.75% of their shots on target over the remaining 14 fixtures. This is something that they may be capable of, however if I mark their finishing up by that amount I still only get a goal expectancy for this match of 2.43, therefore I believe, at best/worst, the Asian Handicap line for this match should be set at +/-1.50 goals.

As the above table shows the market is set at +/-1.75 goals, which therefore suggest the value is with Watford no matter which set of  SOT:Goal numbers I select. In my opinion the best bet to have in this match is taking Watford with a full goal start, therefore if they are only beaten by a single goal stakes will be returned.

BACK WATFORD +1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 3.30 (888 Sport)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Sunderland v Southampton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

One of the terms that I hate in football betting is “current form”, and the reason for that is because current form is generally meaningless and selective. People will try to justify their selection by talking about the last five games, but why not the last ten, fifteen or twenty?

Last weekend I backed Sunderland, yet many were backing Crystal Palace at 1.7x, based on the “current form” of one game, a win at Bournemouth. Fast forward a week and Sunderland, a side who I backed +1 Asian Handicap against Spurs and 0 Asian Handicap against Palace to quizzical looks and comments, are now one of the most popular bets of the weekend, according to Oddschecker. They’ve been tipped up to win on nearly all the betting websites and that phrase “current form” is being throw around.

I use shot statistics to give myself goal expectancies, which I then turn into odds for several outcomes and produce the tables I put in here. Sunderland may have picked up a couple of good results and I may have backed them to do that, but that was all based on my shot stats. Lets not get carried away, Sunderland are a poor side, they sit bottom of the shot difference and shot on target tables.

Last weekend I posted some tables here, to illustrate how Crystal Palace were getting worse under Allardyce. One thing of note from those six game only tables, was that Sunderland were bottom of both of those too.

In my opinion Southampton are an excellent side, they’ve be consistently in the top seven of the shot tables for a few years now and this season is no different. However this term they are having a nightmare in front of goal. They’re currently scoring from, a league low, 20.87% of their Shots On Target, whilst conceding from 42.47% of the SOTs they face. I believe that both of these numbers are unsustainable, therefore In the coming weeks I expect to see Southampton score more and concede less.


[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Liverpool v Tottenham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This is another of those “current form” matches, Liverpool are on a bad run they haven’t won in five league games, Tottenham are unbeaten in nine league matches. At the start of the year I wrote this on why backing Tottenham to end Chelsea’s winning streak was a great bet, part of that was outlining that winning and losing runs should be expected, therefore we shouldn’t take them too seriously when they occur.

Shot stats show that this is a matchup between two of the best sides in the league, up until last weekend these sides were one and two in both the shot difference and shot on target difference tables. There is one huge difference between the sides however and that is the SOT:Goal %. Tottenham are currently over-achieving, by saving 24.62% of the shots on target they face, whereas Liverpool are underachieving, y conceding from 40% of the SOTs they’ve faced. I would expect to see both the numbers move towards the mean over the remainder of the season and today’s game could see the start of that.


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