Premier League | 25th February 2017

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Chelsea v Swansea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Champions elect Chelsea are not the best side in the league on my numbers. They are outside the top four in both the shot difference and the shot on target tables.

I’m not saying they’re not a good side, but they’re not unbeatable and they won’t win every game between now and the end of the season.

At the moment they are scoring from 40.94% of their Shots On Target, which is unsustainable long term, therefore I expecting their scoring to drop off. On top of this they have only conceded from 26.09% of the SOTs they’ve faced, which is again outside of the league averages by over 5%, therefore I expect to see them concede more goals than they have been over the remainder of the season.

Swansea by contrast have conceded from 44.63% of the shots on target they have faced, that  number is too high and will come down.

My numbers have the optimum bet as Swansea +1 in the Asian Handicap market, just piping +2 by 0.0032% of expected value. I wouldn’t put anyone off taking the 1.68 on Swansea +2, I don’t see Chelsea winning by three clear goals. However I trust my numbers and therefore I’m happy to take the +1 at 3.35. If Chelsea win by a single goal my stake will be returned.


[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Watford v West Ham” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

This market has West Ham priced up as a better side than Watford, when my numbers have them both as mid-table sides, somewhere between 12th and 14th. When sides are of equal ability, once home advantage has been factored in we get 1×2 prices of 2.25, 3.40, 3.75.

West Ham have scored from 39.53% of their shots on target so far this season, which is unsustainable. However only 25.83% of their shots have actually been on target, therefore as that goes up, their SOT:Goal ratio will come down but they’ll continue to score at the same rate they are now.

Watford are posting average numbers, which will see them finish in mid-table, it is worth noting that they’ve scored from 29.63% of their shots on target so there is some room for natural improvement there.

The value in this match is on the Watford side of the market and we are capable of backing them at 1.93 on the 0 Asian Handicap line, therefore getting our money back if it’s a draw.

BACK WATFORD 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.93 (Bet365 & Bet Victor)

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