Premier League | 5th February 2017

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester City v Swansea” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Football is a game that is decided by so few chances and that’s why looking at longer term trends and bigger data sets is beneficial for betting purposes. If we take Wednesday night for example, Manchester City visited West Ham, there was a lot of hyperbole spouted on social media and in the press the next day about how fantastic Man City were and people claiming they could’ve won by double figures etc etc.

If we then look at the match statistics we see that Man City had 11 shots, which is below the league average of 11.8 shots, away sides are having per game this season, it’s also fewer than the 15.36 shots that The Citizens have averaged on the road this term. On average if a team have 11 shots in a match, then you’d expect them to have between 3 and 4 shots on target. Manchester City had 4 shots on target on Wednesday night, so that 100% success rate is higher than the league average of around 33%, they’re not going to do that in every match. Neither are they going to meet a side who give the ball away as cheaply as West Ham did every single week.

My numbers suggest that, like when Swansea went to Liverpool, the visitors are the value bet on the +2 Asian Handicap line. I believe Swansea can score in this and that would require Manchester City to score four goals for the bet to be a loser, I’m expecting Man City to have between 5 and 6 shots on target, so they’d have to perform above expectations to get four goals. I’m given further confidence by the fact that Man City have only fully covered the -2 line once at home this season, against Bournemouth.

BACK SWANSEA +2 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.91 (888 Sport, Bet365, Bet Victor)

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Leicester v Manchester United” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

If I can get a full goal in my favour against Manchester United when they are on the road, then I’m going to take it. For all of Leicesters regression to the mean this season, they have still been strong at home, picking up 18 points, which puts them 10th in the ‘home’ league table.

I’ve said for many years now, that if you oppose sides that are odds-on when they are away from home in the Premier League you will make a profit. Obviously that means you’re taking on the big clubs a lot, but it’s an historical value play. When you then add in Asian Handicapping you give yourself the ability to have your stake returned on the +1 line.

I’m happy to back Leicester on the +1 line here especially as I have 0-1, 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 and 1-2 are more likely correct scores than 0-2.


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