Three bets yesterday, one 6.00 winner, beat Betfair Starting Price by an average of 2.47% and a profit means that I’m in a good place to attack day two.
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Messier Des Obeaux is a horse who has served me well this season with victories at Sandown and Newbury, however he was beating last time out at Huntingdon despite hitting 1.10 in-running. I would forgive him that last run and he would be my selection for this race if NEON WOLF wasn’t running.
Harry Fry’s six year old won a Ballyragget point-to-point last year, so there should be no doubts about his ability to stay this distance now that he’s up in trip. He started the season running in bumpers and progressed up to winning a Grade Two at Haydock last time out. He was exceptional at Haydock last time, he showed a fantastic turn of foot to put the race to bed in a matter of strides to beat Elgin, by nine lengths.
He looks to be the potential top class act in the field, there’s a good deal of hype around him and I don’t see how he doesn’t shorten in the market, I fully expect him to go off sub 2.50.
BACK NEON WOLF at 2.88 (Betfair, Paddy Power, Bet Victor)
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Acapella Bourgeois put in a fantastic round of jumping last time out to win a Grade Two by thirty-two lengths, however he was ‘gifted’ that race by the jockeys in behind being asleep, I therefore don’t see him being able to put up another performance like that today. Alpha Des Obeaux finished second in last years World Hurdle, he has the class to win this, but I want to be against him on a time basis.
MIGHT BITE has been on my radar for this ever since he fell in The Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day. He clocked a time that was over two seconds quicker to the last fence than Thistlecrack managed in the King George on the same card. There’s a saying “A good horse can run a bad time, but a bad horse cannot run a good time” and that time performance from Might Bite is a standout performance of the season. He is better on a flat track, but he has managed to win a Cheltenham back in his Novice Hurdle days.
On the preview circuit he’s one that everybody has been looking to oppose, which means he’s drifted out in price from 3.50 to 4.50. I wouldn’t want to be a layer at that price and I now see him as a value bet.
BACK MIGHT BITE at 4.50 (General)