Premier League | 4th April 2017

[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Manchester United v Everton” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

Surprisingly, for me, I didn’t oppose Manchester United against West Brom on Saturday, however that’s more to do with my numbers telling me that West Brom are massively overachieving than suggesting Manchester United are a 1.3x side, even at Old Trafford.

In truth Manchester United haven’t done much wrong this season, they sit second in the overall Shot Difference Table with +231 and lead the Shot On Target Difference Table with +95. Their problem this season is that they’ve only scored from 8.77% of their shots, which sandwiches them between Sunderland and Hull for finishing. That’s not the position you want to be in if you expect to challenge for the title. This shows me that Manchester United have been ‘unlucky’ this season and over time variance will see them improve.

My issue is I don’t want to back them to improve instantly against a side that sit 8th in the Shot Difference Table with +43 and 7th in the Shot On Target Difference Table again with +43. Everton are very much a work in progress but the positive signs are there. They fully deserve to be where they are in the league and that’s what I wouldn’t want to be backing Manchester United at 1.5x in this match.

There are a number of ways in which the Asian Handicap market can be played here, backing Everton +1 at 1.92 means that Manchester United need to win by two clear goals for money to be lost. I have given Everton a 67.5% chance of scoring in this matchup, and I don’t fancy Manchester United scoring three or more, an outcome I’ve given a 26.4% chance to. With that in mind and following my numbers I think the most efficient bet for the long term is to side with Everton on the 0 Asian Handicap line or Draw No Bet Market. My correct score model is telling me that 1-1 is the most likely outcome, a 10.96% chance. That scoreline would result in me getting my stake returned. I’m also happy to get involved as I rate Everton a 4.18 chance to win this match, yet I can get a bigger price on that with the security of the draw on my side.


[symple_heading type=”h2″ title=”Watford v West Brom” margin_top=”20px;” margin_bottom=”20px” text_align=”left”]

West Brom are one of the biggest overachievers in the league this season, they currently sit 15th in the Shot Difference Table with -103 and 14th in the Shot On Target Difference Table with -36, that tells me they are a bottom half club who should be sitting 14th or 15th, yet they’re sitting comfortably in 8th. The reason that they are flying high is due to them scoring from 40.21% of their Shots On Target, they sit second in that particular table and like what is happening with Arsenal (1st), I expect their goalscoring to cool which will in turn result in a poor run of ‘form’.

Watford are above West Brom in both the Shot Difference Table, 12th with -81, and the Shot On Target Difference Table, 11th with -23. My ratings suggest that Watford are in their rightful place in the league, 12th, however that they are better than West Brom. I fully expect the 10 point gap that currently stands between the side to be reduced over the remaining weeks of the season.

I believe Watford are more likely to win this game than not and for that reason I’m happy to backed them on the -1 Asian Handicap line, this means that if they only win by a single goal then my stake will be returned. A win by two clear goals will result in a full cover and a profit.

BACK WATFORD -1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 4.50 (888 Sport)

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