Tuesday’s betting markets were spot on, however this evening’s show has twelve songs currently trading at odds-on to qualify for Saturday’s final. Obviously that means at least two have to miss out and at the prices the one I really want to oppose is Estonia.
A number of people appear to rate this song highly, it’s a classic duet along the same lines as what worked for them in 2015 with Elina Born and Stig Rasta, however for me that song was better than what they’ve produced this year. Another cause for concern would be that their three main voting allies (Latvia, Finland and Sweden) aren’t in this semi-final and therefore cannot vote for this song, they do however have Lithuania. At odds of 1.17 to qualify I have to take this song on.
LAY ESTONIA TO QUALIFY at 1.17 (Betfair Exchange)
Of the songs at odds-against that I think could qualify from this semi-final, I feel that Croatia represents the best value. This song is classic Eurovision, it has engaging ‘light and shade’ performed by Jacques Houdek. It’s drawn after an awful song from San Marino which will help the song stand out as a serious act, which in theory should encourage jury votes. On top of that it should also be able to count on the support of its historic voting allies in Macedonia, Austria, Malta, Serbia and Switzerland.
I think this is the best bet of the entire two semi-finals and at this stage I believe it will be my biggest bet of the week.
BACK CROATIA TO QUALIFY at 2.20 (Betfred)
From an outright 2017 winner perspective I have Australia running for me and I’m pleased that they’ve been handed a second half slot in the running order on Saturday. With only three second half draws left, I’m holding off on having another bet in the outright markets until we know the full running order.