The Championship has been kind to me this week, with four winners from four bets. As I’ve said numerous times it’s not my opinion that I go on, I simply trust my numbers and model. For that reason I am trying to limit the words I write this season. I will however try to point out anything that I believe is a key bit of information.
Aston Villa v Norwich
Aston Villa have had a poor start to the season, compared to expectations. My feeling however is that they’re not ‘that bad’. They were odds-on to beat Hull on the opening weekend and were again, wrongly in my opinion, to win at Reading on Tuesday. The market has overreacted to the Reading result.
My ratings have Aston Villa half a goal superior to Norwich, which means they should be around 2.00 to win the match. With Villa around the 2.45 mark in the 1×2 market, it offers us an excellent opportunity to back them to win with some draw cover. The 0 Asian Handicap line means that stakes are returned if they only manage a draw, Villa win and you win.
BACK ASTON VILLA 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.74 (Bet Victor)
Fulham v Sheffield Wednesday
I think that Fulham may be the most overrated side in the league. Last season they played some fantastic football and posted impressive shot data. However it wasn’t enough to see them get promoted. The markets don’t seem to have fully adjusted, they were a ridiculously short price, 2.00, to win at Reading last weekend.
This weekend they face one of the better sides in the league. Sheffield Wednesday, like Fulham, also lost in last seasons play-offs.
At this moment in time I think it will pay to selectively oppose Fulham. Sheffield Wednesday in the 0 Asian Handicap/Draw No Bet market is my play here. Unlike last season Fulham aren’t outshooting sides and potentially more worrying for them is that they are conceding more shots. It should be noted that may be skewed due to playing two away games and an entire one of those with ten men. However despite that, I can see this being a tight and cagey game. With the starts these sides have had, they may cancel each other out for fear of losing.
BACK SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 3.00 (888 Sport)
Ipswich v Brentford
Rather surprisingly Ipswich have a 100% record. However before their fans get carried away it’s worth noting they’ve conceded more shots than anyone in the league. They’ve also had the third fewest shots in the league. I’d expect them to drop off sooner rather than later. However at the prices I’d rather be a backer of them today.
I like Brentford, they have some exciting player and they post impressive shot stats. However they shouldn’t be favorites away from home.
BACK IPSWICH 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.23 (Bet 365)
Wolves v Cardiff
I still don’t know what to make about Wolves, everything seems to be pointing towards them being the ‘real deal’. Yet, there’s always the underlying feeling that it’s Wolves. I used to enjoying singing “Wolves are in the first division, everybody knows they won’t go up”, especially at West Brom in 2002. This is where having a model helps to decide my bets and at this stage of the season it’s telling me to back Cardiff.
BACK CARDIFF 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.95 (888 Sport)