The Championship | 15th August 2017

It’s the first Tuesday night card of The Championship season and I have two bets that should keep this decent start to the season going.

Barnsley v Nottingham Forest

Forest are three wins from three in all competitions this season, but that doesn’t tell the full story. on the opening weekend of the season they were outshot by 23 to 11 at home to Millwall and lost the shot on target battle 6 to 2. At Brentford on Saturday they conceded 20 shots, with 9 of those on target. Forest managed 13 shots on Saturday and scored 4 goals from their 6 shots on target. At the moment Forest are scoring from 62.50% of their shots on target, they simply cannot keep that up for the entire season. They’ve conceded the most shots in the league after two games, yet they’ve only conceded from 6.98% of these and 20% of the shots on target they’ve faced, again these numbers are unsustainable.

Barnsley are not particularly good either, but they’re posting some decent early season numbers without getting the results. Only three sides in the league have managed more than the 35 shots The Tykes have mustered, yet they’ve only managed to convert from 13.33% of their shots on target, that number will go up.

In the grand scheme of things there probably isn’t much between these two sides and with home advantage Barnsley should be bigger favourites than the market suggests. With the ability to have stakes returned in the event of a draw the zero Asian Handicap line is the most efficient way to bet on this match.


Reading v Aston Villa

I thought that taking Reading on the zero Asian Handicap was a great bet, Fulham scored late on to deny me a winner, however stakes were returned so no harm done.

In a similar way to how I saw the match at the weekend, I don’t see how Reading aren’t favourites to win this match. I think Reading will have an average season, however even then I belive they would win this type of matchup more than 34% of the time.

Only Millwall have scored from a lower percentage of their shots on target than Reading (12.50%), which leaves them open to improvement. However it’s at the other end of the pitch where the most improvement may come. Only Millwall and Cardiff have conceded less shots than Readings 17, yet 41.18% (7) of these have been on target, with 42.86% (3) of shots on target against have found the back of the net. It’s still early days and Reading’s numbers have been helped by the Fulham red card, however there’s a decent margin for improvement and at the prices we should be siding with them tonight.



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