Friday Night Football | 25th August 2017

After making a profit on a bumper weekend of football betting last week, it’s time to kick-off again with two Friday night games from The Football League.

Bristol City v Aston Villa

Aston Villa done the business for me last week by beating Norwich, however they’re opposable tonight. Bristol City have started the season well and appear to not be missing Tammy Abraham. They’ve had the fifth most shots in the league, 63, and their scoring rate of 27.27% of Shots on Target finding the back of the net is likely to improve. Things aren’t as great at the back for them, with 66 shots conceded and only 19.23% of those finding the net. It’s likely they will regress defensively and concede more goals, but they can offset this with their attacking prowess. They look set for an average mid-table finish.

Aston Villa had high hopes for the season, but they’ve got off to a rocky start. As things stand they look like an average side and not one of the favourites to win the title. Their shot difference stands at 0, whilst their SOT difference is -8. In terms of chance conversion they don’t appear to have much improvement possible at either end of the pitch. For them to climb the table they either need to have more shots and/or concede less shots.

My numbers suggest that Bristol City have a little over a 50% chance of winning this matchup. Early prices suggested they only had a 40% chance of winning it’s no surprise to see they’ve been well backed in the Asia over night, with their price across both the 1X2 and Asian Handicap markets dropping. My model suggests that backing The Robins on the -1 line is the most efficient long term bet. It means they would need to win by two goals for a pay-out, but a single goal victory would return stakes.


Notts County v Accrington Stanley

Last weekend I backed against Notts County and lost money, however the profit made from backing Accrington against Mansfield more than cover that. Fast forward six days and it’s no surprise to see my model pricing up Accrington as the value play.

At the start of the season, I aim to waffle less and let my numbers do the talking. I trust my model to deliver long term profits. It’s telling me to back Accrington on the 0 Asian Handicap line and that will do for me.


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