Last night’s betting went well with both Barnsley and Reading getting the required results, which has helped to build on a successful start to the season. Obviously there’s a long way to go, but +7.21 points to level stakes and a personal ROI of 46.91% is more than what I could’ve hoped for at this stage. Tonight’s fixtures is an interesting one as it give Norwich a chance to show Daniel Farke’s plans are starting to get through to the players. Whilst also highlighting if QPR are capable of a serious play-off challenge.
It hasn’t been the best of starts to the season for Norwich, one point from two games isn’t what the locals would’ve wanted. However the underlying numbers suggest that Canaries fans shouldn’t get their pitchforks out just yet. They’ve gone to Fulham and outshout the hots 19 to 16, and beat them in the shot on target count 5 to 3. On Sunday they managed 14 shots compared to Sunderland’s 9, although they did lose the SOT count 5 to 3.
By contrast QPR have had a fine start to the season. They dominated Reading on the opening day and got the result they deserved. That was followed up with a point at Sheffield Wednesday, which was again deserved.
When it comes to this matchup though, my model has Norwich outshooting QPR and gives them a goal expectancies of +0.94 over the Londoners.
There isn’t massive value in the market, yet a small bet on Norwich -1 in the Asian Handicap market is the way I’m going to play this. It means that Norwich need to win by two clear goals for a profit, but stakes are returned if they only win by a single goal. In my opionion this is the more efficient long term bet over taking a Norwich win in the 1X2 market.
BACK NORWICH -1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.43 (888 Sport)