Premier League | 19th August 2017

Some of my picks take a leap of faith this weekend. However I trust my numbers and model. My advice would be that if you don’t agree with my selections, at least ask yourself if an away side at 1.3x (1/3) are a good bet.

Swansea v Manchester United

This may be one of the best value bets I’ve ever seen in The Premier League! Last weekend I backed West Ham +1 in the Asian Handicap market, I lost but I was happy with the bet. Fast forward less than a week and Man Utd are a shorter price to win away from home than they were at home. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Manchester United ta 1.3x to win a game away from home in The Premier League, please tweet me if I’m wrong.

Swansea aren’t a good side, in fact they were awful last weekend at Southampton yet still managed to draw. These odds are a huge over reaction to Manchester United catching West Ham on the break. Last Sunday Mourinho’s men scored from four of their five shots on target. They will not score from 80% of SOTs this season.

Manchester United are the most successful side in Premier League history. They’ve had better teams than the XI they will field in this matchup. However they’ve ‘only’ won 53% of their away matches in the history of the league, this market says they have a 73% chance of winning. On average they’ve won their away games by 0.62 goals, the standard Asian Handicap line here is giving Swansea a start of almost 1.50 goals. History tells us that backing teams at odds-on away from home will lose you money. I simply cannot see how anyone would want to back Man Utd here and Swansea +1 in the Asian Handicap market rates as potentially my bet of the season. A Swansea win means you win, a draw means you win and a single goal defeat means you get your money back.

BACK SWANSEA +1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.50 (888 Sport)

Bournemouth v Watford

I thought I’d be backing Watford in this matchup, however I’ve taken the emotional side out of my betting. I back my numbers and not teams/feelings.

Bournemouth were disappointing at West Brom last week, fortunately I backed West Brom. The Cherries had 71% of the ball, but were outshot in both shots and shots on target. Back on home soil they should be able to post superior shot stats against a Watford side, who struggle away from home.

My model gives Bournemouth a greater than 50% chance of winning this matchup. I’m happy to take the odds-against available on them in the -0.50 Asian Handicap market of the 1×2 markets.

BACK BOURNEMOUTH -0.50 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.02 (Bet 365)

Burnley v West Brom

I’m of the opinion that Burnley are awful and they will go down this season, despite their victory over Chelsea. Usually I’d be looking to oppose them, however at home they’re too big a price to beat a West Brom side who only managed three road wins last season.

The bet for me in this game is Burnley -1, it’s these sort of bets that can make a real difference to your bottom line at the end of the season. Burnley won ten home games last season, I don’t expect them to match that this term but I also don’t expect to see West Brom turn into a formidable road side. At the prices I feel it’s well worth taking a small risk on Burnley keeping up their 100% record.

BACK BURNLEY -1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 4.75 (888 Sport)

Liverpool v Crystal Palace

As I said last week opposing Liverpool and Klopp sides has been financially beneficial for years now, and there’s no reason that should change now. Bookmakers know they can generally price Liverpool up at under the odds they should be as people will still back them. Liverpool have won 60% of their Premier League home games and if they were 1.66 (4/6) in this I’d be advising them as a bet. However they’re 1.40 (2/5) and my model makes them 1.51 (1/2).

Even without Wilfried Zaha I still don’t think Liverpool beat this Crystal Palace side seven times out of ten. Once we then add in the ability to back the visitors in the Asian Handicap market, we get an even better play.

I’m happy to take Palace with a full goal start in this. I expect the Londoners to score at least once, I’ve given them a 56% chance of getting on the scoresheet. If Palace score a single goal, it means Liverpool would need three for me to lose money. Klopp’s side are capable of scoring three goals anyday, however at the odds it’s not something I’d want to back at effectively sub 2.00 (even money).

BACK CRYSTAL PALACE +1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.55 (888 Sport)

Southampton v West Ham

Southampton are a side I think will do really well this season, their underlying shot stats are fantastic but they just seem to be going through a prolonged bad patch. Especially at home. I think the times to back Southampton early in the season will be when they’re away. At home they’re going to be priced up at sub 2.00 and it’s difficult to make a case on why they deserve to be that price, despite their shot stats.

West Ham played well in parts last weekend and I believe 4-0 wasn’t a fair reflection on the game. They over committed during the transitions of play and got caught out on the counter attack. Hopefully Bilic and his team noticed this and therefore would’ve worked on it over the past few days.

In my head it feels like West Ham are capable of getting a ‘smash and grab’ out of this fixture. My numbers back that up and therefore I’m happy to take West Ham on the 0 line. This means that in the event of a draw my stake is returned.

BACK WEST HAM 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 3.95 (888 Sport)

Stoke v Arsenal

A big Saturday of football betting ends with Arsenal visiting a The Bet365 Stadium. I’m not sure how to rate Stoke this season, they just seem to be ‘nothing’. After a few seasons finishing 9th the only real way to go was down. Yet, they’re probably not bad enough to go down especially due to the financial advantages they have.

I think it’s to early in the season to say that Arsenal can’t defend. However that performance against Leicester wouldn’t fill you with confidence that they can keep a clean sheet here. As I keep saying and will continue to say, I trust my numbers. My model says that Arsenal have less than a 50% chance of winning this match, so for me Stoke are a bet.

BACK STOKE 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 3.35 (888 Sport)

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