Premier League | 12th August 2017

Another season of Premier League betting begins, my plans for this year are to write less words and just let the numbers do the talking.

The season started well with three winners and a push last weekend, which would’ve returned a profit of 5.26 points to level stakes. I don’t use level stakes, but instead use a smaller percentage of what’s advised using the kelly criterion formula.

Watford v Liverpool

Like an old friend returning, betting against Liverpool is back. You may not win most weeks opposing them but at the prices you will make a long term profit when you take them on, especially away from home in games like this. Both Liverpool and Klopp consistently under-perform against market expectations and there should be no reason not to expect more of the same this season.

There’s a few ways to play this match,  the more risk averse may look to back Watford with a +1 start which therefore would return your stake in the event of an away victory by a single goal. However I have always believed you should never be scared of a big price and my model tells be that backing Watford off 0 (Draw No Bet) is the most efficient bet to have in this match.


Everton v Stoke

I think Everton are one of the more over-rated sides in the league this season, however I thought they’d be much shorter in the market than they are today. Lukaka will be missed, however at this price against a Stoke side who in reality have been poor for the best part of eighteen months they should be shorter.


Southampton v Swansea

It may be strange that I’m putting up Swansea as a bet here, especially after what I said regarding Southampton in my ante-post preview however I bet to numbers and not teams.

I find myself in a similar position to the Watford bet here, Swansea +1 still being a decent bet but in the long term the price on the 0 line is going to be more beneficial to me. Even f Swansea get beat 6-0, I’ll still be happy enough as it means Southampton are closer to landing the ‘top at month end’ bet.


West Brom v Bournemouth

I didn’t think I’d be backing West Brom in this, but my model tells me that the market is under rating them and therefore I have to be backing them. Their traditionally strong at home and at this stage of the season we should have limited reasons to believe they won’t be again, or that Bournemouth have magically learnt how to defend.

It’s a close thing between what is the best bet here, with 0 and -0.25 (0 & -0.5) only being separated by 0.03%. I’m going with the one I perceive as having the greater edge.

BACK WEST BROM -0.25 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.17 (Bet Victor)

This season I’ll be putting up some syndicate bets via Colossus Bets. They are a pool betting based company, offering a product similar to the Scoop Six in horse racing. It’s and interesting way to be involved in winning some big pots of money for limited stakes. If small stakes accumulators are you type of bet then you should check it out. The bets that I put up can be found here.

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