West Brom v Stoke
This was one of the games I was most looking forward too this week. I was on the Stoke side of the market against Arsenal, but despite the result they were poor. The week before that they were toothless against Everton. With another away trip against a well organised defence I don’t think they have the tools to score.
West Brom are two wins from two, they may have been fortunate to win last weekend but it was a classic Pulis performance. They’re not going to concede too many chances in this match, I’ve given them a 36% chance of keeping a clean sheet.
My model gives West Brom just under a 50% chance of winning the match and this is the type of match where I like to take the -1 line. I expect West Brom to score, a 78% chance according to my numbers. However I have them as a 44% chance of scoring at least two goals. That added to the theory that Stoke will struggle to score means that taking West Brom on the -1 Asian Handicap line is my bet. If they only win by a single goal then stakes are returned.
BACK WEST BROM -1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 4.70 (888 Sport)
Tottenham v Burnley
The Wembley curse and August hoodoo of Harry Kane were in full effect last week. The problem with that however is that it’s such a small sample size that it’s insignificant. Tottenham haven’t played a team as poor as Burnley at Wembley, ever. Harry Kane has only faced one side worse than Burnley in August. That was QPR in 2014, where he only got 21 minutes of playing time. I fully expect both of these statistical ‘quirks’ to come to an end today.
My model suggests that Spurs are 2.30 goals superior to Burnley. Therefore I’m happy to get involved on them in the -1.75 (-1.50, -2.00) market at close to even money. If Tottenham only win by two goals then half of the stake is returned and the other half is paid out as a winner. I actually think Spurs could run up four or five against this Burnley side.
BACK TOTTENHAM -1.75 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.90 (Paddy Power)
Liverpool v Arsenal
As a numbers guy I usually take Liverpool on. However I’m not averse to backing them when they flag up as value. Today is one of those rare days. Liverpool managed 73 more shots than Arsenal last season, whilst conceding 124 less. Looking at shots on target Liverpool were superior by 36 SOTs For and a huge 53 SOTs Against. On the early evidence of this season, we can expect something similar again.
Liverpool would’ve won by more against Palace last weekend if it wasn’t for Wayne Hennessey putting in his greatest ever performance in a Palace shirt. He made twelve saves, if you watch Palace enough you wouldn’t think that he was capable of that.
My numbers suggest that Liverpool should be odds-on to win this. Therefore backing them -1 is the efficient selection.
BACK LIVERPOOL -1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 3.10 (888 Sport)