Tottenham v Chelsea

Spurs play their first league match at Wembley and I believe this whole hooho thing is overblown.  It’s such a small sample size that I’d render it insignificant. There was a study a few years ago which stated that for every additional 10,000 fans a side had over their opponent, it was worth an additional 0.10 goals. Spurs will now have 87,000 home fans, their advantage may be increased. If Spurs were unable to play on pitches bigger than White Hart Lane, how did they manage to win nine away games last season? Hull had the biggest pitch and they demolished them 7-1.

White Hart Lane v Wembley Stats 

It’s also worth pointing out that Spurs conceded from 76.92% of the Shots on Target they faced at Wembley. With a small sample size that’s a big factor to take into account as it will regress to the mean. Spurs will not concede at a similar rate to that this season.

I was tempted to mark Tottenham down a couple of % for this match, trying compensate for any marginal difference that Wembley may make. However I’ve left my ratings the same. A bigger factor on the game may be that the entire core of the Chelsea side from last season won’t be playing here. Hazard and Costa were responsible for the majority of their goals. Gary Cahill also missing, along with Fabregas and Matic.

Tottenham are a better side than Chelsea. Despite Chelsea winning the title last season, I still believed that Spurs were better. A large factor in Chelsea’s success was them scoring from 41.67% of their SOTs. That ratio is way above league averages and very unlikely they’ll be able to repeat it this term

At the prices available we are able to partly cover a draw. The -0.25 (0 & -0.50) Asian Handicap returns half stakes with a draw.

BACK TOTTENHAM -0.25 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.93 (Bet Victor)

2 Comments

  1. Big fan on the website, was wondering how you would go about building a model ?

    • Hi Darragh,

      In my opinion the first thing you need to do is work out what stats are important in the calculation of expected goals for/against. I uses shots myself, others like to use player quality metrics.

      The next thing would be to read up on poisson distribution… good link here

      Once you have those two things, you can start playing around with excel.

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