It seemingly never stops in The Football League. We have an almost full midweek fixture list to get stuck into. My model has now been given it’s first major ratings update of the season and it looks like if you want to be an odds-on 1X2 backer The Championship may be the place to go this season. However I like to be a little more creative and efficient than that, so it’s Asian Handicaps and generally odds-against bets.
Sheffield Wednesday v Brentford
Brentford are one of the unluckiest sides in England at the moment. They’ve had more shots (110) that any side in all four divisions. 33.64% of those shots have been on target, which is a perfectly acceptable number. However only 13.51% of their shots on target have found the back of the net. It’s basically impossible for Brentford to continue having that amount of misfortune in-front of goal. They will start to score more!
At the other end of the pitch they’ve conceded 60 shots, which is the same as Sheffield Wednesday. Only four Championship sides have conceded less shots than these teams this season. What is interesting however is that Brentford have conceded from 42.86% of SOTs against, whilst Sheffield Wednesday sit at 25%. Both of those numbers are likely to be unsustainable and over the coming months we’ll see them trend towards the 31% mark.
What the above all means is that Brentford are the team to side with in this fixture.
BACK BRENTFORD 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.63 (888 Sport)
Leeds v Birmingham
Leeds are doing a lot right this season. No side has conceded less than their 52 shots against and only four sides have managed to more shots that the 88 they’ve taken. It is worth noting that only 15.38% of the shots they are facing are on target. That number is unsustainable, however if I increase it to 33% in my model, they still come out as a value bet tonight.
Birmingham’s issue is that they concede too many shots. 88 against so far this season, with 25% of those on target points to a decrease in defensive output over the coming months. Whereas in theory Leeds will regress further in defensive performance, in reality I expect to see something similar to the below come May;
- Leeds: 131 Shots on Target Against, 40 Goals Conceded
- Birmingham: 222 Shots on Target Against, 69 Goals Conceded
BACK LEEDS -0.75 (-0.5, -1) ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.02 (BEt365)
Norwich v Burton
Regular follower will know that I don’t bet a lot of short odds-on shots, with my average odds being about the 2.7x mark. However this season I have put up ten plays at odds of under 1.80. Those bets have been profitable with seven winners, one push and two loses.
My bet on Norwich tonight will fall into that category. Burton just don’t seem equipped to be able to perform well, especially away from home in this league. They’ve managed less shots (37) and less shots on target (12), than any side in the league. At the back only one side has conceded more shots that the 116 they have faced and no side has faced more shots on target (41) than The Brewers. Away from home they’re bottom of all the stats, so going to one of the toughest grounds in the league is going to prove problematic.
BACK NORWICH -1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.64 (Bet Victor)
Preston v Cardiff
The early pacesetters face a tricky looking trip to Preston. Only Brentford have managed more shots than Cardiff’s 95, whilst only three sides have conceded less shots than the 58 against the Welsh. One of those sides however ia Preston, who have conceded 55. This may not tell the full story though, Preston have played;
- Leeds away and spend over 30 minutes down to ten men
- Derby away
- Middlesbrough away
Those are three tough trips against sides all currently in the top six of the betting to win the league. On top of that they’ve also faced the side who sit seventh in the league title odds, Sheffield Wednesday.
In what looks like it will be a close encounter, with my goal expectancy set at 2.23, I make the home side favourites. Preston of a slither of value her, especially with some draw cover at odds-against.
BACK PRESTON 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.04 (Bet Victor)