The Championship | 9th September 2017

The Championship is offering bonus matches for the ‘cheeky Nandos’ boys this weekend. Seven (7) teams priced at 2.00 or shorter, with another side priced at 2.10. There’s only eleven games. Obviously I’m hoping ‘favourite’ backers aren’t taking their birds out on Saturday night with their acca winnings.

Leeds v Burton

I’ve advised backing Burton in their last two fixtures. They made a profit for me against Birmingham and my stake was returned from their 1-1 draw with Sheffield Wednesday. I see no reason why I should even consider deserting them in this fixture. Leeds are 1.5x to win this match, even though the gaps between the haves and have nots in this league are increasing that price is still looks too short.

We can back Burton with a full goal headstart at almost even money! That means Leeds would have to win by two clear goals for the bet to lose. My model gives Burton a little over a 56% chance of scoring, if they do that Leeds would need at least three players. With some of the attacking options Burton have we shouldn’t be surprised if the find the back of the net.

BACK BURTON +1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.93 (888 Sport)

Norwich v Birmingham

Birmingham are one of my favourite Championship side this season. I’ve opposed them on three occasions and won all three bets. On the occasion I sided with them my stake was returned. Today is a day to take them on again. Norwich are one of the best sides in the league and a completely different proposition at Carrow Road than away from home.

My numbers suggest that Norwich should be giving up a full goal here, yet the market is only asking them to concede 0.75 of a goal. Getting a full quarter of a goal ahead of what I was expecting is good enough for me to invest some of my funds.

BACK  NORWICH -1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.43 (888 Sport) 

Preston v Barnsley

Another odds-on favourite in The Championship? It’s not often you’ll see Preston odds-on at home and for that reason alone it would seem rude not to oppose them. However I back numbers, not teams and feelings.

Fortunately my numbers agree that Preston shouldn’t be as short as they are to win this match. For me it’s as simple as that, the model says back Barnsley with the only question being which line. I’m taking the visitors on the 0 line, which means a draw would return my stake.


QPR v Ipswich

QPR are generally odds-on, 1.9x, across the board to win this. Yes, you did read that correctly. I know Ipswich are rubbish and so far this season they’ve seemingly had an impenetrable force around their goal. Every shot they’ve had appears to find the back of the net. We all know that that cannot continue and they’ll come crashing back down to earth. I don’t think QPR are the side to do that, they’ve mustered 49 shots in five games this season with only 17 on target. Offensively they look a poor side and for me to want to back them at these prices I’d want my model to say they’re 0.75 goals superior.

As it is my model suggest that QPR are 0.20 goals superior, which means I’m backing Ipswich.


Reading v Bristol City

This is one of the few matches this weekend where I would’ve understood an odds-on favourite. However we find Reading priced up at 2.40. Reading over-achieved last season with awful shot stats, Bristol City post some decent numbers. However when it comes down to the nitty gritty Reading are probably a touch better than Bristol City. This market doesn’t agree and deserves to be punished in my opinion.


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