Watford v Manchester City

It’s always awkward for me to back against Man City, as I believe they are potentially a cut above the rest of this league. However due to their less than pragmatic nature it’s unlikely they’ll reach the points tallies of of the Chelsea sides from 2004/05 and 2016/17. Once you add into the mix that those two Chelsea side were very rarely 1.3x to win away from home, it becomes obvious that opposing any away side at 1.3x on the road is probably a good long term value play.

As I’ve said many times, play the numbers not the teams. Do Manchester City win this game more than seven time out of ten? I would suggest that they don’t. Even if they do win the game seven times out of ten, would you fancy them to win by two clear goals in 67% of the fixtures? I would again say it’s difficult to make a case for them covering that line consistently on the road.

BACK WATFORD +1 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.70 (888 Sport)

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