The Championship | 14th October 2017

Fulham v Preston

Offensively there isn’t much between these two sides, Fulham have attempted 144 shots, whilst Preston have attempted 145. Preston have managed more shots on target however, 48 v 39. It’s defensively where Preston are superior to the hosts. No side have conceded less shots than Preston’s 104. Fulham have conceded 156 shots, that’s relegation numbers. Only Burton, Nottingham Forest, Ipswich and Burton have conceded more.

What’s worse for Fulham is that they are only conceding from 23.81% of the shots on target they’ve faced. I don’t think they can continue to to keep shots out at that rate, which means they’ll concede more. Preston have only conceded from 23.08% of the SOTs they’ve faced. They will also regress defensively, but if both these sides regress at a similar rate then Fulham will in theory concede more as they give away more shots.

I like Preston here, I think they could potentially be very good. I don’t see them conceding twice here, plus my model suggests that they around a 70% of scoring.

BACK PRESTON 0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 2.85 (Bet365)

Leeds v Reading

BACK LEEDS -0.25 ASIAN HANDICAP at 1.68 (Bet Victor)

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