Arsenal v Liverpool

Lets keep this simple, it’s Christmas and nobody wants to read an essay, let alone write one.

People say the league table doesn’t lie, well it does otherwise it would finish as it is now come May. However if you are a believer in the league table being accurate then Liverpool and Arsenal are about the same, which means Arsenal are value here. If you believe in other metrics such as shots then Arsenal and Liverpool have taken the same number of shots (123) and achieved the same number on target (115). So for all of Liverpool’s fantastic attacking prowess, they have the same underlying numbers as Arsenal. One place on the attacking front where Arsenal are behind Liverpool is % of SOTs ending up as goals. Liverpool are currently running at 33.04%, there is basically no scope or reason to believe they can or will improve on that number. However Arsenal are currently only finding the back of the net with 26.96% of shots on target, which has plenty of room for improvement. We should start to see Arsenal scoring more goals in the second half of the season.

Defensively Liverpool do better than Arsenal on the underlying numbers, but these sides sit 2nd and 3rd in my expected defensive table. There is also scope for both these sides to improve at the back in the coming months.

Arsenal are the value here and I’m backing them, with some draw cover as that’s what my numbers say to do.


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