So another Eurovision year comes to an end. It’s been a strange year in my opinion, in which I haven’t staked as much money as usual. We’ve seen huge market moves in both directions, the biggest of all being Cyprus.
Yeah, Yeah, Cold Water?
Cyprus have been matched at a high of 450.0, they were available at 100.0 a week ago and are now trading at 2.3x.
I wasn’t overly impressed with Eleni Foureira’s, Fuego in the semi-final. However as a lot of the fancied songs underperformed, the market support is fully justified. There’s nothing wrong with the song, it’s catchy, has fireworks and will get a good televote from a late draw.
My worry with the song is that it reminds me a lot of many Armenian entries. Good songs, memorable lyrics, dancing, flashy staging but when it comes to the big night it just can’t get over the line. At the current prices I have to be against Cyprus.
I was a huge fan of the Israeli entry. It was catchy, easy to sing along to and looked sure to pick up a decent televote. However it turns out that the song doesn’t work well live. The vocals are poor, the staging is a mess and the first 30 seconds just don’t work without the looper. This is then followed by some sort of chicken dance. The only way to describe it to somebody who lost their sight post 1990s would be to say “Chicken Tonight”advert. The juries will punish this song and I don’t particularly see the public going for it either.
In the last few years they’ve sent Golden Boy, Made of Stars with neither gaining much traction in the final, both were considerably superior live performances. Despite my fondness of the song, I don’t see it winning and I have question marks over whether it can make the top three. The obvious play is to back Netta to not finish on the podium.
LAY ISRAEL To Finish Top 3 at 1.6x or less (Betfair Exchange)
Together With Ireland
I’m against the front two in the market, but what to back instead is difficult. Ireland were seen as a non-qualifier by many before the first semi-final. Ryan O’Shaughnessy put in an excellent performance on Tuesday night. Credit where it’s due the staging was all spot on for this song. Together has become the unofficial ‘gay pride’song of this years contest. It’s been gaining media attention due to the censoring of it in Russia and China, but I don’t think it’s gay enough, in the way Conchita was, to significantly boost it’s televote.
Ireland’s limited voting allies is a concern for a song that’s traded down from 1000.0 to 8.40 at one point, currently 11.xx. The juries will deservedly score it highly and Ryan should be proud of what should be a Top 10 finish. After qualifying from the stronger semi-final, where I provisionally had the song down as 5th I’m happy to back Ireland to finish in the Top 10.
BACK IRELAND To Finish Top 10 at 1.67 (Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred)
Hungary For Rock
I stated a few times on Twitter that I believed a rock act could go very close at this years contest. My thinking was that they would stand out from the crowd in a similar way to Lordi. We then started to get a larger than usual number of entries from this genre. I went cold on the idea that I’d want to side with any of them, however that has changed. Hungary was excellent on Thursday night, AWS owned the arena. With this song I’m not worried by the lyrics not being in English, it sounds amazing and comes across well on TV.
From a late enough draw I can see this song picking up a decent sized televote, especially from Central and Easter Europe. If the juries give it a chance, which is a big enough if, then this could be our surprise package of the evening. There isn’t another act that comes across like this band. They could end up memory-holing the clinical poppy blandness of Sweden and overshadowing the second favourite Israel, before Netta has even performed.
BACK HUNGARY To Win Outright Each-Way at 51.0 (Bet Victor, Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral (5th odds, 4 places))
BACK HUNGARY To Finish Top 10 at 4.00 (Betfair Sportsbook)
BACK HUNGARY To Win Outright 110.00 (Betfair Exchange)