The laying of Greece To Qualify at 1.3x helped to make a small profit in the first Eurovision semi-final. Tonight we have the second semi-final, which looks easier to call. For that reason I’m going to keep this short, due to there being only one bet of interest to me.
When I first started thinking of this years contest I had it in my head that a ‘rock’ act could do well with the juries. The thinking was that they’d stand out from the crowd. This may have also helped with the televote. It appears that several countries had the same idea and unfortunately all of those countries have ended up in the same semi-final.
Hungary, Romania, The Netherlands, Denmark and to a lesser extent Ukraine will all be fishing in the same pond. They all won’t make it to the final. From this list the one I want to oppose at the prices is Denmark.
Not A Great Dane
Rasmussen is some sort of Nordic tribute act to the Danes Viking past. Unfortunately for them Finland and Iceland, where this type of music is more popular, can’t vote in this semi-final. On the face of it they may be able to count on the support of Sweden and Norway, but I doubt either of those nations will be give their twelve points to this. The song isn’t relevant to what is played in the charts of Scandinavia right now and it’s highly likely the Swedes and Norwegians will trade their max maximum points.
What we have with Denmark is a bad song, which isn’t jury friendly. They can’t rely on points from their neighbours and they are competing against other superior songs of that genre. This makes them weak in the general televote too. On top of these factors they also have to contend with performing from a bad running order slot.
One positive I have is their staging, it’s not as bad as I thought it would be. A snowy scene and Viking ships
I’m not sure why this song is odds-on to qualify. It’s not like Denmark have a perfect record and they’ve failed to qualify in two of the last three years and only scrapped into the final last year.
LAY DENMARK To Qualify @ 1.3x (Betfair Exchange)
Just for ‘fun’ you have to try and predict all ten qualifiers. I managed to get seven correct on Tuesday. Tonight’s list is;