About Me

I enjoy working out the puzzles of betting markets using maths and logic to beat the interest rates the banks offer. I stick to certain events that I enjoy and have shown that I can make a profit in over the last decade. The reason I stick to these markets is simple, I am happy to put hours of work into them as they interest me. You won’t see me giving out advice on Lithuanian under 19s Basketball for example, as I don’t care about it and in the end that would probably cost me money. This approach has given me long term profits. I am not a believer in the get rich quick strategy that some people use, however I will always have a 50p #ToiletRollAcca.

 

The reason that write about my work is that it helps to keep my mind sharp. Since I began using twitter and then expanded into blogging, my betting has improved. This is due to me putting more thought, time and effort into what I do. Therefore I would never charge for what I do as I make my own money from it.

 

My staking is generally aggressive which leads to swings in profit and loss, but the end figure is my goal and not just a month long flash in the pan. I advise using my work as a guide that can be used to compliment your own work and not to follow me blindly if you don’t agree with my reasoning. I’m not going to be right 100% of the time; otherwise I’d be a trillionaire sitting on a beach not at a computer screen.

 

Please feel free to take a look around, read my blog posts,  make comments and share your success with me on Twitter.

 

4 Comments

  1. Hi .. I am someone who aspire to be a a professional sports investor some day. I love your work and crispness with which you put things forward. I’m fascinated by the use of stats and want to incorporate it in my arsenal. I currently use mostly technical analysis. However staking systems and stats are areas I would love to get into. If you could share some light as to how you simulate matches and work out expected numbers and the staking system you use, it could help me carve a niche. You are a veteran of this game and your experience is invaluable . Please do reply ….

    • Hi Ankit,

      I personally use shot statistics as my underlying metric.

      In terms of staking systems I believe a fraction of kelly criterion works best for things like football, where there isn’t huge variances.

      It’s also worth reading up on poisson distribution.

      There are no solid rules and the markets are always adapting, so you do have to keep looking for new areas or calculations that may give you an additional marginal gain.

  2. Thanks for the reply and the insights shared. I’ve got a basic feeler as to how to set this in motion now. Are there any open source data portals for shots statistics and other stats. Most websites protect their data and is not available to a common user.

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